Below 1.5056/27 should confirm the expected top, and
we stay bearish for the 1.4832 low.
GBPUSD has fallen sharply again after the rejection of key
resistance at 1.5323/43 (38.2% of the decline from 1.5608
and falling 13-day average) and support at 1.5056/27 has
been removed – the March/April lows/potential trend support
at 1.5056/27. This should confirm a more important top is in
place, as expected, targeting 78.6% retracement support at
1.4998 next, ahead of the 1.4832 low. Bigger picture, we
stay bearish for 1.43/42.
Near-term resistance moves to 1.5075, with 1.5176/1.5200
now ideally capping to keep the immediate risk lower.
Strategy: Short covered at 1.5060, and then reinstated.
Add at 1.5175, stop above 1.5200. Take profit at 1.4775.

AUD/USD continued its slide and has so far made a new one
year low at .9626. This is right within the support band at .9640/.9580. It
is the location of the 2008-2013 uptrend and the 2012 low. Here it is
expected to level out, today at least.
The 2012 low will act as the break down point to .9404/.9388, the inter-
year pivot and our medium term downside target.
Current Position: Short at .9750.
Recommended Trade: Lower stop from .9875 to .9850. Cover at .9609.
Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Looking for a slide back to .9640/.9580.
Medium term (1-3 months): .9580, the 2012 low, and then .9404/.9388
the inter-year pivot (3-6 months)

EURUSD BEARISH
Yesterday’s sharp sell-off brings focus back on support at 1.2797. A break
below this would expose 1.2746 ahead of the important 1.2662. Resistance is at
1.3020.
USDJPY BULLISH With the pair posting new recovery high, there is potential for a test of the major
resistance at 105.60. Support is at 101.83.
GBPUSD BEARISH
The latest weakness reinforces the broader bear trend as the pair closed below
1.5128. There is scope for further weakness and no major support until 1.4832.
Resistance is at 1.5174

* Euro-dollar; $1.2800(large), $1.2850, $1.2895, $1.2900, $1.2925, $1.2950,
$1.2965, $1.3000(large)
* Dollar-yen; Y101.00, Y101.50, Y102.30, Y102.50, Y103.30
* Euro-yen; Y133.00
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8600
* Aussie; $0.9750, $0.9800, $0.9850

A corrective setback is still favoured prior to the uptrend
resuming.
No change for USDJPY, with consolidation underway
following the failure to sustain the break above 103.10 – the
38.2% retracement of the entire 1998/2011 bear. Key nearterm support remains seen at 101.86/83, but only below here
would see a small top complete for a decline back to
101.54/26 – price support and the rising 13-day average.
This remains seen as the trigger to a deeper setback to
99.95/90, which we look to hold.
While 101.86/83 holds the immediate risk, can stay higher for
a move back to 103.39, then trend resistance at 103.70.
Above here can target 105.59/60 – the 61.8% retracement of
the decline from 2007.
Strategy: Flat. Go long at 100.20, stop below 99.40. Take
profit at 105.50.

EUR – Remains the most resistant to USD strength for the time being as we see from rally in eur x’s. Supported from RM and corp names at 1.2840/55 area yest we had the squeeze to clean out most of the orderbook post Bullard and Dudley – First to 1.2932 and then to 1.2940 in Asia. These moves have pretty much cleaned the orderbook of stops and we are left with selling 1.2965-1.300. With Bernanke speaking at 3pm today I expect a relatively tight range 1.2880 should be supported while 1.2940/60 should cap us topside. For now i think we in the wider 1.28/1.30 range and will fade accordingly.

EUR/USD is still likely to see a near term correction higher.
Intraday rallies are expected to fail at 1.2972/90 and, while capped here,
it will remain directly offered. This resistance area is made up of the
base of the cloud at 1.2972 and the 55 day moving average.
Key short term resistance is the resistance line drawn from the February
peak which is located at 1.3132. Only an unexpected rise above the
1.3243 current May high would negate our bearish outlook.
Support at last week’s 1.2796 low is considered to be the last defence for
the 1.2740 April low.
Current position: Short at 1.3171.
Recommended trade: Stop at 1.3135 and target at 1.2750.
.
Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Targets the 1.2679/61 zone.
Medium term (1-3 months): Targets 1.2400 en route to the 1.2042 2012
low